Grain Market Commentary

Weekly commentary is written by Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario.

All of these reports include a weekly Ontario Wheat Market Commentary for the current season. Ontario Corn and Soybean Commentaries are also included; reflecting the overall Grain Farmers of Ontario perspective.

Grain Market Commentary for January 25, 2017

January 25, 2017

Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT March 3.66  01 cents
Soybeans CBOT March 10.55  20 cents
Wheat CBOT March 4.24  07 cents
Wheat Minn. March 5.72  12 cents
Wheat Kansas March 4.37  19 cents
Chicago Oats March 2.60  03 cents
Canadian $ March 0.7650  0.90 points

Corn

This week corn struggled with clearing the 50% retracement levels from the July 2016 tops to the Labour Day weekend lows. This is a very important resistance level on our charts. The 50% move up coincides with our resistance of $3.70 that has been in our target zone for some time. If we can convincingly close above this $3.70 level, our next upside target is the $3.80 - $3.85 resistance. For the time being, however, our overhead resistance remains at $3.70 while support is seen at $3.40.

Short term and weekly indicators are still positive, but the main trend is still down.

Soybeans

After reaching our resistance of $10.70 we are now retracing on the soybeans. From these levels we are getting the expected pullback and we anticipate support at the $10.25 - $10.45 range. Eventually, the extension of last week’s move should put our next upside target around $11 or just above there. Initial support is still at the $10.25 level on March, and once we close convincingly above $10.75, our next target is the $11 - $11.20 area.

Short and intermediate term indicators are still positive but the main trend is still down.

Wheat

Wheat continues to impress, as our charts are showing good support around $4 - $4.20 and the intraday chart shows us a pattern that suggests we will see the next upside shot take us to, or close to, the $4.50 top made back in October. This is an important level on the March CBOT chart as it completes an inverted head and shoulders formation. I would expect a pullback from that level, but if we manage to clear the highs convincingly we could be heading towards a more significant resistance level and a major target of $4.60. Our red buy signal from three weeks ago is still intact.

CBOT March wheat initial support is still seen at the $4.20 level and again at $4, while overhead resistance is at the $4.40 - $4.45 level.

Both short and intermediate term indicators are still positive but the primary trend is still down.

Harvest 2017 crop cash prices as of close on January 25, 2017
SWW @ $184.72 ($5.03/bu), HRW @ $184.72/MT ($5.03/bu),
HRS @ $219.79/MT ($5.98/bu), SRW @ $184.72/MT ($5.03/bu).

USDA Reports

The United States Department of Agriculture publishes monthly reports that may be of use to our members.

Report Released Link
Crop production July 12, 2017
World agricultural supply and demand estimates July 12, 2017

Archive

Grain Market Commentary for July 19, 2017
7/19/2017 4:00 PM | GFO.ca
Grain Market Commentary for July 12, 2017
7/12/2017 4:00 PM | GFO.ca
Grain Market Commentary for July 5, 2017
7/5/2017 4:00 PM | GFO.ca
Grain Market Commentary for June 28, 2017
6/28/2017 4:00 PM | GFO.ca
Grain Market Commentary for June 21, 2017
6/21/2017 4:00 PM | GFO.ca
Grain Market Commentary for June 14, 2017
6/14/2017 4:00 PM | GFO.ca
Grain Market Commentary for June 7, 2017
6/7/2017 4:00 PM | GFO.ca
Grain Market Commentary for May 31, 2017
5/31/2017 4:00 PM | GFO.ca
Grain Market Commentary for May 24, 2017
5/24/2017 4:00 PM | GFO.ca
Grain Market Commentary for May 17, 2017
5/17/2017 4:00 PM | GFO.ca
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