Grain Market Commentary

Weekly commentary is written by Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario.

All of these reports include a weekly Ontario Wheat Market Commentary for the current season. Ontario Corn and Soybean Commentaries are also included; reflecting the overall Grain Farmers of Ontario perspective.

Grain Market Commentary for May 31, 2017

May 31, 2017

Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT July 3.71  01 cents
Soybeans CBOT July 9.26  22 cents
Wheat CBOT July 4.30  02 cents
Wheat Minn. July 5.72  11 cents
Wheat Kansas July 4.31  01 cents
Chicago Oats July 2.48  10 cents
Canadian $ June 0.7402  0.45 points

Corn

With better than 90% of the U.S. crop planted, the first stage towards a 2017crop has been completed. Going forward, we will see if the weather cooperates with the outcome. The charts still show a sideways movement, but it has a positive undertone. We continue to trade between the $3.60 - $3.90 level as it has done since the summer of 2016. The main downtrend line on our weekly chart still sits at $4 while the good support is seen at $3.50. Support on the July contract is seen at $3.60 while overhead resistance is still at $3.80 with major resistance at the $4 mark.

Short term indicators are neutral, but the main trend is still down.

Soybeans

We finally broke the through the $9.40 support level on the lead month as we thought we might since receiving the red sell signal on May 19. It also came on the heels of the U.S. long weekend. The $9 price level on the July contract coincides with the low point from last July and the last line of support before a challenge to the $8.50 level may be initiated. If the $9 support fails to hold on the lead month contract, there is a very good chance that we will challenge the $8.50 price target coming into the early summer. This is according to what I see in the technical analysis. There is not much support below $9 according to the charts, until a test of the $8.50 bottom from the 2015 charts. Hopefully the $9 support level will hold.

Short term indicators are all negative and the main trend is still down.

Wheat

We had a quiet week in the Chicago wheat markets the week of May 29, but the Minneapolis continued to build on its chart pattern and is becoming more bullish by the week. Spring wheat broke its downtrend line back in November and needs to break above the $6. level on the lead month contract to show its bullish side. A break above the $6.40 on the lead month contract could incite a trend reversal according to the weekly charts. Both Chicago and Minneapolis are looking very constructive for the next couple of months. We still anticipate a challenge of the $5 resistance level on the Chicago by early summer based on the formation that I see. Support on the July contract is seen at $4.15 and again closer to the $4 mark. Our overhead resistance is at $4.40 - $4.60, also on the July contract, while our major overhead trend line runs across the monthly chart around $5.

Meanwhile, short term indicators are still neutral, but the primary trend is down.

Harvest 2017 crop cash prices as of close on May 31, 2017
SWW @ $198.22/MT ($5.39/bu), HRW @ $198.22/MT ($5.39/bu),
HRS @ $233.70/MT ($6.36/bu), SRW @ $198.22/MT ($5.39/bu).

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