Grain Market Commentary

Weekly commentary is written by Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario.

All of these reports include a weekly Ontario Wheat Market Commentary for the current season. Ontario Corn and Soybean Commentaries are also included; reflecting the overall Grain Farmers of Ontario perspective.

Grain Market Commentary for July 19, 2017

Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT September 3.82  03 cents
Soybeans CBOT November 10.12  25 cents
Wheat CBOT September 5.03  32 cents
Wheat Minn. September 7.75  06 cents
Wheat Kansas September 5.00  44 cents
Chicago Oats September 2.93  11 cents
Canadian $ September 0.7950  1.00 points

Corn

Needless to say, it was a volatile week for the corn. We tried to negate the first significant downtrend line at the $4 area on the September chart, only to be turned back by the flood of sell orders. We reversed and plunged 30 cents per bushel on the futures contract within a two day period. We will not give up that quickly, as I’m sure there will be another attempt on the trend-line. What I am not willing to say is whether or not we will be successful. If we were successful, our next challenge would be an attempt at the all-important $4.40 level on the lead month futures contract, which could tip the scales and turn this market northward going forward.

Initial support on the September futures is seen at $3.65 on the September futures, while overhead resistance is still at $4, also on the September contract.

Short term indicators are neutral and the primary trend is still down.

Soybeans

This week has been exactly as forecast: a retreat from the stiff resistance as indicated in our reports at the $10.50 level on the November new crop contract. This corrective phase should continue a while longer and we should find at least temporary support at the $9.60 level on November. I do expect another upside move over the coming weeks, but we will have to wait and see how the chart patterns develop. The charts have a friendlier tone since we received the red buy signal on July 3, and I expect a run at the $10.50 level again, and possibly even the $10.80 level if we manage to stay above the $9.50 level on our daily closing prices.

Like the other crops, this one could be very sensitive to weather issues over the next few weeks.

Short term indicators are still positive, but for now the primary trend is still down.

Wheat

It was another corrective week, as the September Minneapolis lost another 6 cents overall since our last report. Prices retreat under low volume, but it is obvious that this is a wait and see situation as the weather driven crops needs more fuel to further advance prices. The main trend indicator is still on the red buy signal, although we have minor sell signals on the short term chart which is to be expected in a corrective mode. Support is seen at $7.45 on September futures while another support level which may be tested on a larger pullback would be the $7 mark.

Chicago futures closed the gap at the $5.25 level, and they are now at our $5 support as indicated in last week’s commentary. If this area cannot hold the stress, we will be looking at the next support line of $4.80-$4.90 and another at the $4.60 level on the September futures.

Our red buy signal is still intact on long term charts, and although we are losing most of the gains in July, the indicators are still suggesting we have a major trend change to the upside.

Short term indicators are neutral but the main trend is still up.

Harvest 2017 prices as of the close, July 19 are as follows:
SWW @ $218.72/MT ($5.95/bu), HRW @ $218.72/MT ($5.95/bu),
HRS @ $289.01/MT ($7.87/bu), SRW @ $217.90/MT ($5.93/bu).

USDA Reports

The United States Department of Agriculture publishes monthly reports that may be of use to our members.

Report Released
Crop production August 10, 2017
World agricultural supply and demand estimates August 10, 2017

Archive

Grain Market Commentary for August 16, 2017
8/16/2017 4:00 PM | GFO.ca
Grain Market Commentary for August 9, 2017
8/9/2017 4:00 PM | GFO.ca
Grain Market Commentary for August 2, 2017
8/2/2017 4:00 PM | GFO.ca
Grain Market Commentary for July 26, 2017
7/26/2017 4:00 PM | GFO.ca
Grain Market Commentary for July 19, 2017
7/19/2017 4:00 PM | GFO.ca
Grain Market Commentary for July 12, 2017
7/12/2017 4:00 PM | GFO.ca
Grain Market Commentary for July 5, 2017
7/5/2017 4:00 PM | GFO.ca
Grain Market Commentary for June 28, 2017
6/28/2017 4:00 PM | GFO.ca
Grain Market Commentary for June 21, 2017
6/21/2017 4:00 PM | GFO.ca
Grain Market Commentary for June 14, 2017
6/14/2017 4:00 PM | GFO.ca
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