Grain Market Commentary

Weekly commentary is written by Marty Hibbs, Grain Farmers of Ontario.

All of these reports include a weekly Ontario Wheat Market Commentary for the current season. Ontario Corn and Soybean Commentaries are also included; reflecting the overall Grain Farmers of Ontario perspective.

Grain Market Commentary for October 18, 2017

Commodity Period Price Weekly Movement
Corn CBOT December 3.48  01 cents
Soybeans CBOT November 9.84  08 cents
Wheat CBOT December 4.30  01 cents
Wheat Minn. December 6.10  02 cents
Wheat Kansas December 4.28  02 cents
Chicago Oats December 2.68  06 cents
Canadian $ December 0.8025  0.10 points

Corn

Corn actually ran the stops on the December contract lows last week and closed the day higher. This is a good initial move to allow higher prices in the coming weeks. The only problem with this short sighted plan is that the weekly continuation chart shows a low of $3.28 as the old bottom, while the daily December chart now still shows contract lows are $3.40.

With the harvest well under way, we will need more bearish news if the markets plan to slip below last week’s stops; and if that were to happen, there is a better than average chance that we will indeed challenge the $3.28 lows for the 2017 crop year. Support is still seen at the $3.40 level on the December contract, while overhead resistance is seen at $3.60.

Short term indicators are still negative, and the primary trend is still down.

Soybeans

We had our pop towards the $10 mark as indicated in last week’s commentary. We are now getting a check back in prices but the bullish formation is still intact. We are still expecting much higher prices in 2018 and this week we received a red buy signal on our weekly charts.

Support is seen at $9.40 and our overhead resistance is at the $10 mark on the November contract.

Both short and medium term indicators are now positive, but the primary trend is still down.

Wheat

We mentioned in our last commentary that the recent lows in the December wheat contract would soon be tested, and as of October 18 we are trading at $4.30 per bushel. Our recent bottom is pegged at $4.28 with our contract low being recorded at $4.22 and our weekly chart shows $4 as the yearly low. Either way, we have several targets in our sights and hopefully one of them will signal a bottoming action for some price relief.

For now, the $4 bottom on the weekly chart from September 1 could be the required test for support. Initial support still sits at $4.20 with solid support at $4 on the December chart, while overhead resistance is viewed at $4.60.

Short term indicators are still negative and the primary trend is still down.

Harvest 2017 prices as of the close, October 18 are as follows: SWW @ $183.15/MT ($4.98/bu), HRW @ $192.30/MT ($5.23/bu), HRS @ $238.09/MT ($6.48/bu), SRW @ $187.72/MT ($5.11/bu).

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